A few days ago, I wrote a piece on Crypto. That got me thinking about the apps and what we run them on. As someone who likes to think in terms of systems, I tend to find cycles everywhere.
Here is a cycle for you to consider:
Now, we all know that Platforms are often some of the largest value opportunities - and that mostly explains the rush for building new platforms that capture value. This is even more true of the dApps ecosystem where the protocol layer is usually where the value really accrues. The apps are mostly fungible (in that they are great UI interfaces but often little else that the protocol isn’t already doing - the heavy lifting is being done by the protocol).
A great example of this harkens back to the late 19th century. The first electric bulb was created in 1880s. The first electric grids came on in 1882. Now, you don’t need an electric grid to operate lightbulbs, but you do need easy availability of electricity (aka power grids) to drive widespread adoption. So, the App (the bulb) drove the infra (the power grid). Now, there was a whole bit of commercial warfare about AC v/s DC standard (aka war of the currents). Once the protocol was standardized (AC current) in the late 1890s, light bulbs became cheaper and the sales exploded.
For almost 3 decades, the internet (or ARPANET) was a place for academics, nerds and the Military. In 1980s, universities connected to it. Then came the text only websites (anyone remember Arachne?). Then someone (Berners Lee) came up with the concept of the WWW and the madness unleashed itself. Each of these phases is also connected with the same cycle of Applications requiring Infra (military needed to coordinate, hence Arpanet) and Infra leading to Applications (WWW leads to websites explosion).
Another way to visualize this behaviour is like a series of rising peaks. Each incremental infra stack solves the problems of the current apps and enables the creation of the next generation of Apps.
Sometimes Apps and infra will cross over the boundary into the other domain - a great example of which is Google. in 1998, it was an app. In 2021, it is infra. Context on the internet is fluents. Apps of Web 1.0 were infra of Web 2.0. Apps of Web2.0 are already working as infra of Web 3.0. And so it goes on….
Here is how it has played out on the internet:
and for Mobile apps
and for Crypto Apps:
I am very excited about what Web 3.0 looks like.
On the Infra side, it will likely mean some huge advances in Computing. We are already hitting the limits of what is possible. As an example, the Average DAUs for games like PUBG, Fortnite etc. hovers around 350-400mn. Think about that number for a moment. 400 million people are playing games on your servers everyday. Can you think of the amount of compute needed to make it happen? How do you even visualize the next gen of hardware to service demands which are rising like this? Check out Render for an idea of what the future of compute might look like. Don’t have an expensive graphics card - no issues. Blockchain to the rescue.
On the Apps side, my suspicion is that crypto wallets and NFTs will play a very important role here too. If you haven’t yet, I would encourage you to take a look at Cyber. Its one of my favourite dApps. it asks a fundamental question about change - Why is a CyberKong or a CryptoKitty less legit as an artwork than the Mona Lisa? A little WTF moment for me but I can appreciate the point. Then there is Teamflow which is truly a little mind bending for me. I mostly have no words but I want to know about their customers and their thought processes.
Is this how Ready Player One style world of Oasis gets created? Or were the Seti@Home people onto something big?